TY - GEN
T1 - Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Fuzzy Logic
AU - Blancas, Jordan
AU - Noel, Julien
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 IEEE.
PY - 2018/10/26
Y1 - 2018/10/26
N2 - In this paper, fuzzy logic (FL) is applied to the problem of short-Term load forecasting (next day) in electrical power systems. To achieve this, it is necessary to select the historical data to be used and pre-process them using the c-means method, grouping them according to power levels (MW) to define the number of membership functions (MFs) to the fuzzy system, which is very important for the calculation of the lowest forecast error; finally, the historical data are entered into the fuzzy system implemented in MATLAB. This methodology is applied to predict the daily electrical load (demand) of the Peruvian Electrical System using the historical data of the actual demand executed for the study period and by calculating the MAPE error. It is shown that the FL offers better results than the conventional methodology for the forecast of the electrical load.
AB - In this paper, fuzzy logic (FL) is applied to the problem of short-Term load forecasting (next day) in electrical power systems. To achieve this, it is necessary to select the historical data to be used and pre-process them using the c-means method, grouping them according to power levels (MW) to define the number of membership functions (MFs) to the fuzzy system, which is very important for the calculation of the lowest forecast error; finally, the historical data are entered into the fuzzy system implemented in MATLAB. This methodology is applied to predict the daily electrical load (demand) of the Peruvian Electrical System using the historical data of the actual demand executed for the study period and by calculating the MAPE error. It is shown that the FL offers better results than the conventional methodology for the forecast of the electrical load.
KW - Clustering
KW - Peruvian interconnected electrical system.
KW - fuzzy logic
KW - short-Term load forecasting
KW - time series
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85057053462&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/TDC-LA.2018.8511751
DO - 10.1109/TDC-LA.2018.8511751
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85057053462
T3 - Proceedings of the 2018 IEEE PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition - Latin America, T and D-LA 2018
BT - Proceedings of the 2018 IEEE PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition - Latin America, T and D-LA 2018
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 2018 IEEE PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition - Latin America, T and D-LA
Y2 - 18 September 2018 through 21 September 2018
ER -